Here is an interesting bit of intellectual history. In his 2000 book “Causality”, Judea Pearl describes how he got to the initial idea that sparked the development of causal inference based on directed acyclic graphs. Continue reading The Origins of Graphical Causal Models
Last week I was teaching about graphical models of causation at a summer school in Montenegro. You can find my slides and accompanying R code in the teaching section of this page. It was lots of fun and I got great feedback from students. After the workshop we had stimulating discussions about the usefulness of this new approach to causal inference in economics and business. I’d like to pick up one of those points here, as this is an argument I frequently hear when talking to people with a classical econometrics training. Continue reading No Free Lunch in Causal Inference
I found this job ad by accident on Twitter and was surprised to see that Facebook has a causal inference group. Continue reading Facebook’s Causal Inference Group
In my class we recently discussed a paper by Higgins and Rodriguez (2006)—published in the Journal of Financial Economics—that contains an important lesson for researchers who want to apply the difference-in-differences (DiD) method in competition analysis and merger control. Continue reading Becoming More Different Over Time
[This is the second part of a fair copy of a recent Twitter thread of mine. I suggest you have a look at part 1 about nonlinear mediation analysis first. Otherwise, it might be hard to follow this post.]
Understanding causal effects is tough, but understanding causal mechanisms is even tougher. When we try to understand mechanisms we move beyond the question whether a certain causal effect exists, and ask how an effect comes about instead. Continue reading A plea for simple theories
This is a fair copy of a recent Twitter thread of mine. I thought it might be interesting to develop my arguments in a bit more detail and preserve them for later use.
Here’s a quote from John K. Galbraith’s 1952 book American Capitalism: The Concept of Countervailing Power Continue reading Do we really run out of good ideas?